Although it’s unlikely that South Africa’s tourism industry will fully recover from the pandemic-caused slump this summer, the tourists who do go there will be wealthy and upscale.
According to Business Insider, the troubled tourism industry in South Africa is anticipating an open summer. Flight cancellations, border restrictions, quarantines, and a general reluctance to travel because of health issues hampered the prior two summer seasons.
Close to a third of the direct and indirect jobs in South Africa’s tourism industry were lost during this period.
After the majority of limitations were loosened at the beginning of the year, international travel has since recovered, but it has still not reached the levels last seen in 2019. The rebound in developed regions has been far faster; according to Eurocontrol, European aviation traffic increased to more than 80% of 2019 levels in August. The increase in summer travel to and within Europe caused havoc at understaffed and unprepared airports all over the continent.
Although travel spending has returned to normal, travel to and within the United States has taken longer to recover, with international arrivals at 65% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the US Travel Association.
Returning foreign tourists to South Africa have been significantly slower. The number of foreign arrivals during the first half of 2022 was at 45% of pre-pandemic levels. However, the second half of this period is thought of as South Africa’s off-season, with fewer people travelling abroad during the winter months in favour of the northern hemisphere summers.
The upcoming summer season, which will provide a fair assessment of the comeback in international visitors during the nation’s busiest travel seasons, has the attention of South Africa’s tourism and hospitality industries.
Additionally, while South Africa may still anticipate a large influx of visitors this summer, experts in the travel sector predict that the amount of visitors won’t likely reach pre-pandemic levels.
According to Martin Wiest, CEO of Tourvest Destination Management, “our current assumption is that arrival numbers will be between 50% and 60% of 2019 levels.” Wiest made this statement to Business Insider SA.
Constraints on airline capacity and rising costs on some routes compared to 2019 are ongoing issues preventing a quick recovery in arrival numbers, according to Wiest. Airlines are finding it difficult to place new pilots in the air, and the necessary simulator training that must be completed within the next 18 months is completely booked. This is a result of the pandemic’s widespread layoffs.
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According to Wiest, airline capacity is only likely to return to normal in two years, and in the interim, ticket prices, which are also influenced by fluctuating oil prices, are likely to remain high.
But there are other factors impeding South Africa’s tourism industry recovery in addition to the high expense of travel. Over the past two years, the nation’s reputation has also been harmed as a result of increased security and safety worries turning away potential tourists.
“The 2021 riots did not assist us [attract tourists]. Difficulties with safety and security in South Africa have a significant impact on our capacity to develop the tourism industry in this nation, and at the moment, we are constantly encountering [safety] issues with our passengers, “Wiest added.
“Mpumalanga has issues, and the Garden Route has issues as well. It’s quite dangerous in Port Elizabeth [Gqeberha]. Tourism in this nation is currently restricted by safety.”
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Tourvest also has offices in Kenya and Namibia, and according to Wiest, the recovery of the tourism industry in those countries has been faster than that in South Africa. Wiest cited an “overall structural issue” tied to government inefficiencies as the reason for the slower recovery in South Africa.
The good news for the tourism industry is that although South Africa won’t receive as many visitors this summer as it did before the pandemic, those who do come will be high spenders and more likely to partake in luxury experiences.
“I think we’ll have less volume [of arrivals] in the country, but what we can definitely see at the moment is that we have a better-quality tourism [with] longer stays [and a] better product,” said Wiest, citing the example of 50% of visitors now looking for five-star treatment, whereas, prior to the pandemic, 20% of tourists were making these opulent vacation reservations.
Will SA’s tourism industry recover?
Robert More, CEO and creator of the MORE Family Collection, which manages many lodges and boutique hotels in Southern Africa, supports the anticipation of fewer but wealthier travellers this summer.
As the cheap market sector continues to improve, “the luxury market is driving the recovery, and we predict that this pattern will continue for the foreseeable future,” More told Business Insider.
“Although we anticipate that the season will quickly return to its pre-pandemic levels, the affordable market might not fully recover until the summer of 2023 or 2024. It’s possible that the European energy crisis may have even more of an impact, but it’s unclear if this would actually benefit travellers this summer.
